Accurate forecasting of future events and their outcomes is a crucial input into a successful business or economic planning process. This course provides an introduction to the application of various forecasting techniques. The methods include trend curve extrapolation, smoothing, autoregressions, regression modelling, leading indicators. The course also looks at techniques for the evaluation of performance of forecasting methods and examines the role of forecasts in the decision making process. Students will learn how to use the various techniques in real world forecasting applications.

Upon successful completion of the requirements for this course, students will be able to:
• Understand various important concepts in forecasting and different approaches for modelling trend, seasonality and persistence
• Use the analytical tools that econometricians employ to analyze data
• Tailor-make models for their applications and use them to produce forecasts
• Complete basic programming tasks, including reading and modifying existing codes
• Understand journal articles that use intermediate forecasting methods

The assessment scheme is as follows

• Assignments: 40%
• Mid-semester examination: 30%
• Final examination: 30%

4 contact hours per week plus private study time.

At least an average of 65% (or equivalent) in the final two years of an Australian undergraduate degree with introductory level courses in Economics, Statistics and Econometrics

For further information please refer to course website