DEMO8080 Demographic Forecasting and Projections
| Offered By | Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute |
|---|---|
| Academic Career | Graduate Coursework |
| Course Subject | Demography |
| Offered in | DEMO8080 will not be offered in 2012 |
| Unit Value | 6 units |
| Course Description |
Please note, this course is not offered in 2009.
The cohort-component method of population projection is reviewed, including added detail such as labour force status. There are three approaches to determining the projection input in terms of future mortality, fertility and migration: these approaches can be characterised as expectation, extrapolation and explanation. Traditional methods use expectation or expert opinion, based on demographic and other considerations. Students will formulate a complete population projection of this type, using Excel. Recent methods use extrapolation often incorporating time series methods. Extrapolative methods are reviewed in detail. Specifically, the Lee-Carter method of mortality forecasting is studied, and students will formulate a projection using this method (in Excel). Forecasts based on explanation are also discussed. For further information, see http://adsri.anu.edu.au/study/Courses/DEMO8080/index.php |
| Learning Outcomes | Population projection is an important demographic tool. Both traditional and stochastic approaches are covered. |
| Indicative Assessment | Students will be assessed on the basis of assignments demonstrating the application of methods using data from a country of their choice. |
| Workload | 3 contact hours per week |
| Course Classification(s) | AdvancedAdvanced courses are designed for students having reached 'first degree' level of assumed knowledge, which provide a deep understanding of contemporary issues; or 'second degree' and higher levels of knowledge; or for transition to research training programs. |
| Areas of Interest | Demography and Population Studies |
| Requisite Statement |
DEMO8008 Principles of Population Analysis at Distinction level or higher. DEMO8007 Statistics for Social Scientists at Distinction level or higher. |
| Consent Required | Students not enrolled in the Master of Social Research or the Graduate Certificate in Social Research require permission of the Masters Coordinator, Dr Robert Ackland, to enrol in this course. Please email him on adsri.study@anu.edu.au |
| Programs | Graduate Certificate in Social Research, Graduate Certificate in Social Research, Master of Social Research, and Master of Social Research |
| Academic Contact | Associate Prof Heather Booth |
The information published on the Study at ANU 2012 website applies to the 2012 academic year only. All information provided on this website replaces the information contained in the Study at ANU 2011 website.
